Heat Death Of The Virtual Universe

 

Heat Death Of The Virtual Universe

(Note: One day after this post was made, Rod Humble resigned as CEO of Linden Labs.)

2014

  • Regions continue to decline.  Shopping, residential, and roleplay sims merge or chop parcels in half to save money and resources.
  • Economically, it causes the market to become more competitive; thrift and gacha events rise due to their relatively small cost to customers who are also looking to save money.
  • One or two high-earning land barons or designers are zapped by the IRS for unreported income.
  • Alpha testing for High Fidelity finishes.  Anticipating that this is the new Second Life, registration slows even further and users begin logging on High Fidelity more to get accommodated to the new world.
  • In less than a year, High Fidelity tanks due to lack of registration, or is shorted out because of funding.  However, the damage is done; registration for Second Life has already slowed too much, and now users are bleeding out even faster.

2015

  • More sims close.  LL staff is consolidated, changes leadership, or both.
  • A rise in piracy is seen this year with LL doing less to enforce the safety of intellectual property rights.  The market becomes lax in this respect.  A few popular designers quit.
  • Less land being purchased causes the land market to become competitive.  It’s possible LL might release abandoned land to be purchased by users at this point.  It won’t do enough good, though, as there aren’t enough users to buy what’s there.
  • Towards the end of the year, a sharp decline in registration happens.  More sims shutter, which causes more users to leave, which causes more sims to shutter…

2016

  • In an alternate grid, private regions are rising.  Designers possibly form groups to establish their own sims on other grids to continue selling their work, similar to the Knitting Circle’s foray into Inworldz.  In order to access these regions, users must log on to that individual grid and then connect to the region directly–much like direct dialing a website in the early days of the internet.
  • Websites are established to link to popular regions so that users can find them.  This is the boon of the dark grid, a visual undernet where stats are unreported and most sims are kept private.
  • Second Life bleeding out slows and stagnates.  True heat death sets in, and LL entertains options to save the grid from closing completely.

2017

  • A crowdfunding campaign is started by Linden Labs to help with server costs for the year, as the only option to not raise land prices for users on the grid.  The campaign is successful, but it’s just a band-aid for the inevitable…

…Because by 2018, there won’t be a Second Life anymore.  It may shrink and change names, or it might be run by a completely new staff, or so many people laid off or LL declaring bankruptcy.  Either way, it won’t survive and users will either migrate to private grids or leave for other games altogether.

There’s no real way to save a game like this because of how demanding it is on computers, and the registration decline that’s already been set in motion.  Every virtual world or MMO has its expiration date, and when it reaches that, it’s up to the user to figure out where they’re going to go from there.

I’m pretty sure my predictions won’t all come true.  I typed all of this out as a general timeline based on games I’ve seen decline before.  Where do you think SL is going to head in five years?  Let me know in the comments, and thanks for reading.

EDIT:

I also wanted to point out something else.

As Second Life declines, its popularity in mainstream media is going to rise.  Right now on Tumblr there are images of various images from SL being reblogged and passed around with no context or clue as to where they come from.  These images are usually from 2007 or before, but you can expect more recent images to be shared as the game heads further into a death spiral.

What was previously ‘uncool’ is going to become cool again, and it’s possible right before the game dies, there might be one last hurrah with curious users entering the grid to experience its last days.  In reality, they’re just there to capture a piece of earlier time–so places like Hobo Island and Lollygaggers might get their attention before something like Juicybomb or Lula would.

Advertisements
6 comments
  1. Jamielee said:

    Since I began Second Life back in 2008 these doomsday’ers have been crying the sky is falling.

    • Aemeth said:

      Oh well. Thanks for visiting anyway!

  2. 8-bit Biologist said:

    A very thoughtful analysis. However, I do not believe it takes into account the impact of emergent immersive technologies. The Oculus Rift is only the tip of the iceberg, with haptics and others coming after. SL has been quick to incorporate these and is best poised to benefit from it. It stands to draw in and keep a great number of users.

    • Aemeth said:

      Can you explain further about haptics?

      I’ve heard a lot about the Rift, but outside of NWN and special youtube videos, I’m not seeing this readily available to the public.

      It’s like it’s a bubble of hype within a special market for Rift. No facebook shares or other gamer friends talking about this at all. How can this help SL if even the Rift itself is not being talked up that much?

      • Radhau Resident said:

        The Rift is still being developed and developed for. Right now, you can order a developer’s kit- it will likely be available for the regular user sometime mid-year, but then again that’s speculation. Considering how long it’s been developer only, I’m sure that it will be hitting markets soon.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Sugar Girls

Sweet Fashion from Sweet Girls

Lazy Designers

Not actually lazy, just busy.

Whiskey Shots

photos and words by Whiskey Monday

Bluebird's Song

an excuse for me to shop & indulge in vanity photos

%d bloggers like this: